This week has been a whirlwind for U.S. gamers, starting with the much-anticipated full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2, only to be met with widespread disappointment over its $450 price tag and $80 for Mario Kart Tour. The roller coaster continued as Nintendo announced a delay in pre-orders to assess the impact of the Trump Administration's sudden and sweeping tariffs on global trade.

We've explored the reasons behind the high cost of the Nintendo Switch 2 and the potential effects of these tariffs on the gaming industry in other articles. Now, the burning question is: What will Nintendo do next? Will the price of the Nintendo Switch 2 increase once pre-orders open?

Typically, when faced with such uncertainties in the gaming world, I consult a panel of expert industry analysts. While they can't predict the future, they usually provide a well-informed consensus based on data and trends. I've already done this twice this week, but this time, every analyst I spoke to was stumped. Their responses were filled with guesses and heavy caveats, emphasizing the unprecedented chaos of the situation. No one can accurately predict what Nintendo, Trump, or anyone else will do in the coming days or months.

With that in mind, here's what the analysts had to say:

Sky-High Switch

The analysts were split on whether Nintendo would raise prices. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, initially believed it was too late for Nintendo to change the announced prices. However, the delay in pre-orders has changed his perspective. He now thinks Nintendo will likely increase prices for the system, games, and accessories after running simulations.

"It is very difficult to predict, but Nintendo will likely take a few days to run simulations and then announce hikes, not only for the system itself but also games and accessories," he said. "I hope I am wrong but if sustained, these sky-high tariffs leave them no choice. Would you be surprised now to see Switch 2 hit US$500 for the base model? I wouldn't."

Dr. Toto also questioned Nintendo's timing, wondering why they didn't wait for the U.S. to resolve the tariffs before setting the price during a Direct presentation.

Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, echoed the unpredictability of the situation. He believes that the breadth and depth of the tariffs caught everyone off guard, leading to a likely increase in game prices, including those from Nintendo. "Based on the conversations I'm having, the breadth and depth of the tariffs surprised everyone, not just consumers," he said.

Piscatella noted that Nintendo probably had some assumptions about the tariffs when setting the initial price, but the actual tariffs were much higher than expected. He emphasized that businesses relying on international supply chains must reevaluate their U.S. consumer pricing.

Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, predicts that hardware prices will increase, though he believes software might be less affected due to the dominance of digital distribution. "While physical versions might be subject to tariffs, the growing dominance and lower cost of digital distribution would likely limit any broader effect," he said.

Rosier added that if a significant tariff increase is introduced, companies like Nintendo are unlikely to absorb the cost, leading to higher retail prices for consumers.

Holding the Line

On the other side of the debate, Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, believes that Nintendo might try to avoid a price increase. He suggests that the volatility from the Trump tariffs was already considered in the Switch 2's $449.99 pricing.

"I believe the volatility from the Trump tariffs was already considered in the Switch 2's $449.99 pricing," he said. "Given the first Trump administration's impact, Nintendo, like other manufacturers, has since restructured its supply chain to mitigate such geopolitical risks. Historically, Nintendo has aimed for a launch price around the $400 mark, adjusted for inflation, suggesting that the current price already reflects an anticipation of potential economic challenges stemming from ongoing trade disputes."

However, van Dreunen acknowledges the unpredictability of the tariffs, especially with the recent situation in Vietnam, which could force Nintendo to absorb or offset additional costs. He expects Nintendo to strive to maintain the $449.99 price point but notes that further deterioration of the trade landscape might force a reassessment.

Piers Harding-Rolls, games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agrees that Nintendo faces a dilemma after announcing the launch price. He suggests that the company will try to hold the line until 2026 at the earliest but might adjust if the tariffs persist. The delay in pre-orders gives Nintendo time to seek a solution over the next few weeks.

"The extent of the tariffs and its impact on Vietnamese exports are really bad news for Nintendo," he says. "The company is now in between a rock and a hard place, having already announced the launch price. I have already suggested that the pricing would stay as announced until 2026 at the earliest but then might be adjusted if the tariffs stay in place. This delay in pre-orders is to give the company more time and it will be hoping some sort of solution will be found over the next few weeks. This is a pretty fluid situation after all. Nintendo will not want to change the price having announced it, but I think everything is on the table now. If the pricing does change, it will impact the brand and the US consumer's view of the product at launch. I don't think that will put off loyal fans, but it might put off broader consumers who will take a wait and see approach. That's particularly important during its first holiday season."

Living in Unhinged Times

Rhys Elliott, games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicts higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He referenced his previous comments to IGN about Nintendo announcing cheaper digital editions of Nintendo Switch 2 games in certain markets to nudge buyers towards digital purchases.

"It seems the lower prices in other markets were to nudge Switch 2 buyers to digital, as I mentioned my comments to IGN about Mario Kart World's pricing. Nintendo might have wanted to do something similar in the US, but the tariff situation is so chaotic that Nintendo was in 'wait and see' mode — and decided to hedge its bets to see if it needed to offset the tariffs."

Elliott painted a grim picture of the broader impact of the tariffs on the gaming industry, aligning with warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. He believes that the tariffs will result in a "weaker, poorer nation," with consumers ultimately bearing the cost.

"Some manufacturers – Nintendo included – have been shifting their manufacturing to non-tariff-impacted markets," Elliott says. "And even if companies can afford to switch up (no pun intended!) their supply chains, who knows which markets will get tariffs next – as recent news supports. Companies cannot just lift up their whole supply chain and move everything to the US. It's just not logistically possible. Under current law (I can't believe I have to qualify this, but here we are), Trump would not be in power anymore by the time such a move would be completed – for Nintendo and other manufacturers. We are living in … there's no other word for it .. unhinged times driven by an unhinged man (and other forces)."

Elliott criticized the tariffs as harmful to U.S. consumers and the gaming industry, noting that they do not lead to a "much stronger, much richer nation" as claimed. He emphasized that tariffs harm the economy and go against the principles of international trade theory, which suggest that countries should focus on producing goods efficiently and trading for goods they are less efficient at producing.

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