Analyst Predicts Strong, but Not Leading, Switch 2 US Sales in 2025

Gaming analyst Mat Piscatella forecasts US sales of approximately 4.3 million Nintendo Switch 2 units in 2025, contingent on a first-half launch. This projection represents roughly one-third of the total US console market (excluding handheld PCs). While this is a significant number—recall the original Switch sold 4.8 million units in the US by the end of 2017—Piscatella anticipates the PlayStation 5 will retain its top spot in US console sales.

The Switch 2's success hinges on several factors. Crucial elements include the launch timing (ideally before summer to capitalize on peak seasons), the console's hardware quality, and the competitiveness of its initial game lineup. While considerable online buzz surrounds the Switch 2, translating this hype into substantial sales remains uncertain.

Piscatella acknowledges potential supply chain challenges, echoing the initial Switch launch's difficulties. However, he remains unsure of Nintendo's preparedness this time. The company might have preemptively addressed potential shortages, learning from past experiences.

The analyst's prediction contrasts with the anticipated strong performance of the PlayStation 5, particularly given the expected 2025 release of Grand Theft Auto 6, a title likely to boost PS5 sales significantly. Nevertheless, the Switch 2's prospects are promising, with its ultimate market position depending heavily on its hardware capabilities and the appeal of its launch titles.